Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
