A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
